Argus tungsten market update and outlook – June 2024 | Argus Media

Tungsten prices are at highs not seen for some time. This short update will help you to understand the fundamental reasons behind these high prices and give you an insight into the near to medium term outlook for the tungsten market. The insights provided in this 10 minute video are taken from the new edition of Argus Tungsten Analytics service, presented by Mark Seddon, Principal Consultant. The video update explores: • Tungsten prices are at 6-year highs, principally affected by near-term supply issues in China • Demand for tungsten is generally muted, especially in Europe, but the defence sector is driving demand given the current geo-political issues in eastern Europe and the Middle East • The medium-term supply picture is likely to be boosted by new projects coming on-stream in 2H 2024 and 2025

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Singapore, 14 October (Argus) — South Korean battery materials producer PoscoFuture M, a subsidiary of conglomerate Posco, has begun producingnickel-cobalt-aluminum (NCA) cathodes at its plant in Pohang ahead of schedule,citing "customer requests". The 30,000 t/yr NCA cathode plant that sits in NorthGyeongsang province's Pohang city was originally planned to start production andsales in 2025. Posco Future M has another NCA plant under construction in SouthJeolla province's Gwangyang city, which will have a production capacity of52,500 t/yr. The firm in 2023 signed a 10-year deal to supply fellow batterymanufacturer Samsung SDI with high-nickel NCA cathodes, which will come fromsome of the lines at the upcoming Gwangyang plant, it said. The company expectsto reach 248,500 t/yr of cathode material production capacity by 2026, with106,000 t/yr from Pohang and 142,500 t/yr from Gwangyang, because of thecontinuing electric vehicle (EV) market slowdown, it said on 14 October. Thesecapacities are markedly lower from a goal of 320,000 t/yr by 2025 that the firmsaid in July last year. Posco Future M earlier in September suspended plans tobuild a nickel sulphate and battery precursors plant with major Chineselithium-ion battery metal and cathode active material (CAM) manufacturer HuayouCobalt because of an EV "chasm". The term typically refers to the adoption gapin new technologies between early adopters and mass market consumers, which maybe the cause of the slowdown in ex-China EV sales. The firm in September alsodisclosed that it is pushing back the timeline to complete a 30,000 t/yrhigh-nickel CAM plant in Canada's Quebec , which is a joint venture with USautomaker General Motors, citing "local conditions". The plant was supposed tobe completed in the second half of 2024. By Joseph Ho Send comments and requestmore information at [email protected] Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

London, 9 October (Argus) — US-based aluminium roller and recycler Novelis hasentered into a strategic three-year agreement with European scrap processor TSRRecycling to ensure a stable supply of around 75,000t of pre-sorted andprocessed end-of-life aluminium scrap for its production of low-carbon aluminiumsheet for the automotive sector, the company said today. Novelis processedaround 700,000t of aluminium scrap in Europe last year, and plans to increasethat figure by around 50,000t this year. TSR processes ferrous and non-ferrousmetal scrap, and has a long-standing partnership with Novelis that isstrengthened by this agreement. The agreement comes at a time rising demand forrecycled material in the feedstock of aluminium producers globally, as theindustry increases its focus on sustainability and the lowering of scope 2carbons emissions. "Availability of end-of-life material is crucial as Novelisis constantly developing innovative solutions with its automotive customers toabsorb more pre and post-consumer scrap into new, high recycled-contentautomotive aluminium alloys," Novelis said. By Jethro Wookey Send comments andrequest more information at [email protected] Copyright © 2024. ArgusMedia group . All rights reserved.

Tokyo, 9 October (Argus) — Japanese metal producer Nittetsu Mining has agreed toform a joint venture with Vancouver-based exploration firm Camino Minerals todevelop a copper mining project in Chile. This comes as part of Nittetsu'smid-term strategy to achieve 50,000 t/yr of copper production by 2033. The 50:50joint venture betweenNittetsu and Camino plans to develop the Puquios CopperProject in Chile's central Coquimbo region, the Japanese firm announced on 8October. The investment amount and production volume of crude ore and copperconcentrates were undisclosed. But copper equivalent output could be around15,000 t/yr, according to the Nittetsu representative who spoke to Argus . TheJapanese firm is still in discussions with Camino over potential offtake amount,the representative added. The project will start commercial operations aftercompleting the environmental approval process, which could take another fewyears, Nittetsu said. "This opportunity aligns with Nittetsu's commitment toexpanding our footprint in the copper sector by utilising our extensiveoperational experience and technical expertise", said Nittetsu's general managerShinichiro Mita. The Japanese firm has separately been developing the Arqueroscopper project in Chile since April 2023, with funding by state-backed JapanBank for International Cooperation (Jbic). The company aims to start producing15,000 t/yr sometime during April 2026 and March 2027, which is similar to theoutput volume expected at Puquios project. Japan's government stronglyencourages domestic firms to secure copper supply sources. The country'sstrategic energy plan was revised in 2021, with an aim to lift base metalself-sufficiency to 80pc by 2030, up by around 30 percentage points from the2018 level. But the strategy appears to not be on track, the country's ministryof trade and industry Meti said in September, although it did not disclose thecurrent rate. Nittetsu expects copper price is likely to remain bullish in themid-to long term, given higher copper demand driven by decarbonisation andelectrification efforts. But the price could face higher volatility in the shortterm, the company said in July. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request moreinformation at [email protected] Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . Allrights reserved.

London, 4 October (Argus) — Europe's stainless steel producers will continue toimport and use nickel pig iron (NPI) until the EU's carbon border adjustmentmechanism (CBAM) enters its definitive period in 2026, according to JohnEastwood, major nickel mining group Anglo American's head of sales, stainlessand specialty steel raw materials. A region-wide scarcity of stainless steelscrap and rising raw material costs drove European mills to pivot to using thecheaper and more carbon-intensive Indonesian NPI this year, with importsequating to 10,000t of nickel metal content in January-July, according to RedDoor Research managing director Jim Lennon. A European trading firm told Argusthis week that Spanish producer Acerinox, ramping up production after afive-month strike-related outage this year, has also committed to using NPI asinput feedstock. Speaking on the sidelines of the Nickel Institute Seminarduring LME Week on 2 October, Eastwood said this trend will not die down in thenear term despite recent falls in scrap prices, with only CBAM — the EU's taxmeasure to limit carbon leakage within the region and support its long-termclimate goals — being a likely deterrent. Currently in its trial phase beforefull planned implementation in 2026, CBAM requires European importers to offsetthe CO2 emissions linked with the production of the goods purchased overseas bybuying emissions certificates. Scrap suppliers in Europe are waiting as theyrealise they cannot compete with NPI, with the downside to prices likely to belimited as a result, Eastwood said. The Argus assessment for stainless steelscrap 304 (18-8) solids cif Rotterdam has fallen by nearly 20pc since 22 Augustand was last at an average €1,175/t. The European stainless steel industry isfacing a severe downturn with real demand set to shrink for a third straightyear in 2025. Flat producers in particular are operating at well below capacityamid low downstream service centre demand, and Eastwood foresees no change tofundamentals until the second half of 2025. "The problem is not profitability,the problem is there is excess capacity," Eastwood said. "We had Acerinox out ofthe market for months this year, but it made little difference to the market andprices. Despite a shortage of scrap, there was no impact on our ferro-nickelsales, which tells you how weak the market is." Eastwood believes the secondhalf of 2025 is when demand might recover as the effect of improving macros andeasing monetary policy will start to kick in. CBAM has come under intensecriticism from European stainless steel producers given that it does not includescope 3 emissions while imposing taxes on selected upstream raw materials, withmany producers simply viewing it as a protectionist measure that isfast-tracking de-industrialisation. Eastwood echoed this sentiment and stressedon reform, but said the industry had now accepted that it was here to stay."There are many holes [in CBAM]. It includes ferro-nickel but leaves out refinednickel, for example," he said. "It is not uniform for the whole supply chain.Average CBAM costs are about $1,000/t of nickel. It is not clear who will paythis." Anglo American's projections peg the class 1 nickel market as the soleprovider of market surpluses in the coming years, with the Asian class 2 market,including NPI and ferro-nickel, balanced and even tight, Eastwood said. Nickelprices on the LME are expected to move similarly in 2025 relative to this year."The wider surplus story is here to stay," Eastwood said. "The story aboutnickel rocketing up is over. We do not expect much change." Eastwood notedfreight costs as a significant limiting factor for the stainless steel industrynext year, curbing imports of finished stainless steel into Europe. "Freightprices have been astronomical, and we expect it to remain the same next year,"he said. "These costs will weigh heavily on trading, whether imports orotherwise." By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information [email protected] Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rightsreserved.

Singapore, 3 October (Argus) — Indonesia is expected to continue expanding itsnickel production in the coming years, especially through increasing itshigh-pressure acid-leaching (HPAL) capacity, but the lack of readily availablesulphuric acid and proper management of the tailings waste could pose challengesto this plan. Production is expected to rise despite an anticipated surplus inthe supply of nickel in the market. Sulphuric acid is used in the HPAL processto separate nickel and cobalt from nickel ore to produce mixed hydroxideprecipitate (MHP), which is the feedstock for the downstream processing ofnickel sulphate, cathode and battery. Indonesia is expected to produce325,000-345,000t of MHP this year, up from around 269,000t of in 2023, accordingto market sources. But with several MHP projects planned to come online in thenext few years, MHP output for the next three years is projected to treble to800,000-900,000t, according to the country's deputy minister for theco-ordinating ministry for maritime and investment affairs Septian Hario Seto on2 October at a metal event in London. As this would require a lot more nickelore and sulphuric acid, there are concerns that the availability of limonite orecould deplete as fast as the saprolite ore supply, which is mainly used fornickel pig iron and matte production. There were also discussions that theIndonesian government will convene with nickel market participants to discussabout the supply situation of limonite ore. There are currently four HPALfacilities operating in Indonesia. This includes Huayou's Huayue and Huafeiprojects , GEM's QMB project and Lygend's HPAL project. Others were alsoconcerned that the availability of sulphuric acid could be a limiting factor toIndonesia's rapid expansion of HPAL production, as sulphuric acid demand fromIndonesian HPAL projects is expected to reach 7.12mn t in 2025, almost 40pcincrease from this year's demand at 5.17mn t, according to Argus estimates.Indonesia has been importing sulphuric acid from mainly China and South Korea tomeet the growing demand for its production units at Obi Island and Sulawesi. Buta ramp-up in sulphur-burning operations has pushed several MHP producers likeHalmahera Persada Lygend to switch to buying lower-cost sulphur instead. Formost sulphur burners, 1t of sulphur produces around 3t of sulphuric acid. Thestartup of Freeport McMoran's Manyar smelter in Java integrated industrial andport estate in East Java's Gresik, coupled with mining firm Amman Mineral NusaTenggara's (AMNT) copper smelter in the West Sumbawa regency of Nusa Tenggaraprovince, is also expected to alleviate some supply concerns, with the twoexpected to add at least 3mn t/yr of acid capacity by the end of 2025. Properdisposal of tailings waste could pose another challenge to Indonesia's plannedHPAL expansion, particularly with increasing scrutiny on the environmental,social and governance (ESG) standards by Indonesia's mining industry. The HPALprocess generates a large volume of tailings, with energy consultancy WoodMackenzie estimating an output of 1.4-1.6t of waste from every 1t of nickelproduced through HPAL. There are three common ways to dispose tailings waste –tailings dam, deep sea tailings and dry stacking. Dry stacking is more widelyused because it is considered as the more sustainable option. But dry stackingalso comes with its own environmental and biodiversity risks, as Indonesia'sseasonal wet weather and seismic activity of the site could be a problem forwaste storage. To ensure a smooth expansion in HPAL production, it is crucialfor Indonesia to find ways to secure the necessary sulphuric acid supplies andto adopt appropriate methods for tailings waste disposal. By Sheih Li Wong andDeon Ngee Send comments and request more information at [email protected] © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.